To propose a method for estimating the lifetime advantage of statins.
Kaplan-Meier survival curves from published 4S and LIPID studies with 5.8- and 6.1-year follow-up were digitized. Gompertz distributions were fit up to the end of the trials, and then extrapolated out to the end of the patients' predicted lifetimes for each study.
The method results in a 9.9 (95% CI: 8.7-11.9) and 2.8 (95% CI: 2.3-3.3) years' increases for the statin groups for 4S and LIPID studies, respectively.
Previous analysis of the same data was limited by the trials' relatively short run time. As such, we propose a method for correctly estimating the true effect of statin therapy in terms of total lifetime extension.