Number of calvings at 53 mo (NC53) was proposed as an alternative selection criterion to improve productive longevity of Nellore cows. This study was carried out to estimate variance components for NC53 by assuming different models, so that the potential for using this selection criterion to improve fertility of Nellore cows could be assessed. Genetic correlations between NC53, number of calvings at 89 mo (NC89), and 2 selection indexes used in this breed were also estimated. The NC53 trait is moderately heritable (posterior mean heritability ≈ 0.17) and selecting for this criterion could improve productive longevity of Nellore cows. Greater response to selection is expected by fitting a threshold animal model for this trait, rather than a linear animal model. Greater accuracy of prediction for this criterion could be achieved by fitting a threshold-linear model, considering this trait and a selection index composed by traits evaluated at weaning and long-yearling.